Current forecast of COVID-19 in Mexico: A Bayesian and machine learning approaches.

The COVID-19 pandemic has been widely spread and affected millions of people and caused hundreds of deaths worldwide, especially in patients with comorbilities and COVID-19. This manuscript aims to present models to predict, firstly, the number of coronavirus cases and secondly, the hospital care demand and mortality based on COVID-19 patients who have been diagnosed with other diseases. For the first part, I present a projection of the spread of coronavirus in Mexico, which is based on a contact tracing model using Bayesian inference. I investigate the health profile of individuals diagnosed with coronavirus to predict their type of patient care (inpatient or outpatient) and survival. Specifically, I analyze the comorbidity associated with coronavirus using Machine Learning. I have implemented two classifiers: I use the first classifier to predict the type of care procedure that a person diagnosed with coronavirus presenting chronic diseases will obtain (i.e. outpatient or hospitalised), in this way I estimate the hospital care demand; I use the second classifier to predict the survival or mortality of the patient (i.e. survived or deceased). I present two techniques to deal with these kinds of unbalanced datasets related to outpatient/hospitalised and survived/deceased cases (which occur in general for these types of coronavirus datasets) to obtain a better performance for the classification.

Early Prediction of Disease Progression in Patients with Severe COVID-19 Using C-Reactive Protein to Albumin Ratio.

BACKGROUND: Early identification of patients with severe coronavirus disease (COVID-19) at an increased risk of progression may promote more individualized treatment schemes and optimize the use of medical resources. This study is aimed at investigating the utility of the C-reactive protein to albumin (CRP/Alb) ratio for early risk stratification of patients. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed 557 patients with COVID-19 with confirmed outcomes (discharged or deceased) admitted to the West Court of Union Hospital, Wuhan, China, between January 29, 2020 and April 8, 2020. Patients with severe COVID-19 (n = 465) were divided into stable (n = 409) and progressive (n = 56) groups according to whether they progressed to critical illness or death during hospitalization. To predict disease progression, the CRP/Alb ratio was evaluated on admission. RESULTS: The levels of new biomarkers, including neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio, CRP/Alb ratio, and systemic immune-inflammation index, were higher in patients with progressive disease than in those with stable disease. Correlation analysis showed that the CRP/Alb ratio had the strongest positive correlation with the sequential organ failure assessment score and length of hospital stay in survivors. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that percutaneous oxygen saturation (SpO2), D-dimer levels, and the CRP/Alb ratio were risk factors for disease progression. To predict clinical progression, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of Alb, CRP, CRP/Alb ratio, SpO2, and D-dimer were 0.769, 0.838, 0.866, 0.107, and 0.748, respectively. Moreover, patients with a high CRP/Alb ratio (≥1.843) had a markedly higher rate of clinical deterioration (log - rank p < 0.001). A higher CRP/Alb ratio (≥1.843) was also closely associated with higher rates of hospital mortality, ICU admission, invasive mechanical ventilation, and a longer hospital stay. CONCLUSION: The CRP/Alb ratio can predict the risk of progression to critical disease or death early, providing a promising prognostic biomarker for risk stratification and clinical management of patients with severe COVID-19.

Clinical Utility of Midregional Proadrenomedullin in Patients with COVID-19.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to assess the role of midregional proadrenomedullin (MR-proADM) in patients with COVID-19. METHODS: We included 110 patients hospitalized for COVID-19. Biochemical biomarkers, including MR-proADM, were measured at admission. The association of plasma MR-proADM levels with COVID-19 severity, defined as a requirement for mechanical ventilation or in-hospital mortality, was evaluated. RESULTS: Patients showed increased levels of MR-proADM. In addition, MR-proADM was higher in patients who died during hospitalization than in patients who survived (median, 2.59 nmol/L; interquartile range, 2.3-2.95 vs median, 0.82 nmol/L; interquartile range, 0.57-1.03; P <.0001). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed good accuracy of MR-proADM for predicting mortality. A MR-proADM value of 1.73 nmol/L was established as the best cutoff value, with 90% sensitivity and 95% specificity (P <.0001). CONCLUSION: We found that MR-proADM could represent a prognostic biomarker of COVID-19.

Role of plasma angiotensin II and angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 levels on prognosis and mortality in hypertensive patients with COVID-19.

Introduction: SARS-CoV-2 requires angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) to enter the cell. In our study, we aimed to investigate the role of angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 and angiotensin II plasma levels on prognosis and mortality in patients with isolated hypertension, patients with chronic diseases in addition to hypertension and patients with COVID-19 without comorbidities, in accordance with the use of renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitor. Materials & methods: In the study, patients diagnosed with COVID-19 were divided into three groups. Angiotensin II and ACE2 levels were compared by comorbidities, antihypertensive drugs used, intensive care hospitalization and termination of patients. The relationship between angiotensin II and ACE2 levels and service and intensive care times was investigated. Findings: A total of 218 patients were enrolled in our study, including 68 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 without comorbidities, 33 patients diagnosed with isolated hypertension and 117 patients with other chronic diseases in addition to hypertension. There was no statistically significant difference between the comorbid disease groups between angiotensin II and ACE2 levels of the patients enrolled in the study. The rate of patients admitted to the intensive care unit was 17.9%, and the mortality rate was 11.5%. Results: In our study, we did not obtain significant findings regarding angiotensin II and ACE2 levels on presentation that can be used in prognosis and mortality of COVID-19 patients and development of future treatment methods.

Angiotensin II receptor blocker intake associates with reduced markers of inflammatory activation and decreased mortality in patients with cardiovascular comorbidities and COVID-19 disease.

AIMS: Patients with cardiovascular comorbidities have a significantly increased risk for a critical course of COVID-19. As the SARS-CoV2 virus enters cells via the angiotensin-converting enzyme receptor II (ACE2), drugs which interact with the renin angiotensin aldosterone system (RAAS) were suspected to influence disease severity. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analyzed 1946 consecutive patients with cardiovascular comorbidities or hypertension enrolled in one of the largest European COVID-19 registries, the Lean European Open Survey on SARS-CoV-2 (LEOSS) registry. Here, we show that angiotensin II receptor blocker intake is associated with decreased mortality in patients with COVID-19 [OR 0.75 (95% CI 0,59-0.96; p = 0.013)]. This effect was mainly driven by patients, who presented in an early phase of COVID-19 at baseline [OR 0,64 (95% CI 0,43-0,96; p = 0.029)]. Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed a significantly lower incidence of death in patients on an angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) (n = 33/318;10,4%) compared to patients using an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEi) (n = 60/348;17,2%) or patients who received neither an ACE-inhibitor nor an ARB at baseline in the uncomplicated phase (n = 90/466; 19,3%; p<0.034). Patients taking an ARB were significantly less frequently reaching the mortality predicting threshold for leukocytes (p<0.001), neutrophils (p = 0.002) and the inflammatory markers CRP (p = 0.021), procalcitonin (p = 0.001) and IL-6 (p = 0.049). ACE2 expression levels in human lung samples were not altered in patients taking RAAS modulators. CONCLUSION: These data suggest a beneficial effect of ARBs on disease severity in patients with cardiovascular comorbidities and COVID-19, which is linked to dampened systemic inflammatory activity.

CXCL10 levels at hospital admission predict COVID-19 outcome: hierarchical assessment of 53 putative inflammatory biomarkers in an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Host inflammation contributes to determine whether SARS-CoV-2 infection causes mild or life-threatening disease. Tools are needed for early risk assessment. METHODS: We studied in 111 COVID-19 patients prospectively followed at a single reference Hospital fifty-three potential biomarkers including alarmins, cytokines, adipocytokines and growth factors, humoral innate immune and neuroendocrine molecules and regulators of iron metabolism. Biomarkers at hospital admission together with age, degree of hypoxia, neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), C-reactive protein (CRP) and creatinine were analysed within a data-driven approach to classify patients with respect to survival and ICU outcomes. Classification and regression tree (CART) models were used to identify prognostic biomarkers. RESULTS: Among the fifty-three potential biomarkers, the classification tree analysis selected CXCL10 at hospital admission, in combination with NLR and time from onset, as the best predictor of ICU transfer (AUC [95% CI] = 0.8374 [0.6233-0.8435]), while it was selected alone to predict death (AUC [95% CI] = 0.7334 [0.7547-0.9201]). CXCL10 concentration abated in COVID-19 survivors after healing and discharge from the hospital. CONCLUSIONS: CXCL10 results from a data-driven analysis, that accounts for presence of confounding factors, as the most robust predictive biomarker of patient outcome in COVID-19.

Detrimental effect of diabetes and hypertension on the severity and mortality of COVID-19 infection: A multi-center case-control study from India.

AIMS: This study aims to find a quantitative association between the presence of co-existing diabetes mellitus (DM) and/or hypertension (HTN) with COVID-19 infection severity and mortality. METHODS: A total of 813 patients with a positive COVID-19 were included. A case-control design was used to dissect the association between DM and HTN with COVID-19 severity and mortality. RESULTS: According to MOHFW guidelines, 535 (65.7%) patients had mild, 160 (19.7%) patients had moderate, and 118 (14.5%) patients had severe disease outcomes including mortality in 52 patients. Age, Neutrophil%, and Diabetes status were significantly associated with severe COVID-19 infection. After adjusting for age, patients with diabetes were 2.46 times more likely to have severe disease (Chi-squared = 18.89, p-value<0.0001) and 2.11 times more likely to have a fatal outcome (Chi-squared = 6.04, p-value = 0.014). However, we did not find evidence for Hypertension modifying the COVID-19 outcomes in Diabetic patients. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 severity and mortality both were significantly associated with the status of DM and its risk may not be modified by the presence of HTN.

Clinical outcomes in patients infected with different SARS-CoV-2 variants at one hospital during three phases of the COVID-19 epidemic in Marseille, France.

OBJECTIVES: To compare the demographics, clinical characteristics and severity of patients infected with nine different SARS-CoV-2 variants, during three phases of the COVID-19 epidemic in Marseille. METHODS: A single centre retrospective cohort study was conducted in 1760 patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 of Nextstrain clades 20A, 20B, and 20C (first phase, February-May 2020), Pangolin lineages B.1.177 (we named Marseille-2) and B.1.160 (Marseille-4) variants (second phase, June-December 2020), and B.1.1.7 (alpha), B.1.351 (beta), P.1 (gamma) and A.27 (Marseille-501) variants (third phase, January 2021-today). Outcomes were the occurrence of clinical failures, including hospitalisation, transfer to the intensive-care unit, and death. RESULTS: During each phase, no major differences were observed with regards to age and gender distribution, the prevalence of chronic diseases, and clinical symptoms between variants circulating in a given phase. The B.1.177 and B.1.160 variants were associated with more severe outcomes. Infections occurring during the second phase were associated with a higher rate of death as compared to infections during the first and third phases. Patients in the second phase were more likely to be hospitalised than those in the third phase. Patients infected during the third phase were more frequently obese than others. CONCLUSION: A large cohort study is recommended to evaluate the transmissibility and to better characterise the clinical severity of emerging variants.

COVID-19 autopsy reports from the Ga-East Municipal and the 37 Military Hospitals in Accra, Ghana.

INTRODUCTION: Since the declaration of COVID-19 by the World Health Organisation (WHO) as a global pandemic on 11th March 2020, the number of deaths continue to increase worldwide. Reports on its pathologic manifestations have been published with very few from the Sub-Saharan African region. This article reports autopsies on COVID-19 patients from the Ga-East and the 37 Military Hospitals to provide pathological evidence for better understanding of COVID-19 in Ghana. METHODS: Under conditions required for carrying out autopsies on bodies infected with category three infectious agents, with few modifications, complete autopsies were performed on twenty patients with ante-mortem and/or postmortem RT -PCR confirmed positive COVID-19 results, between April and June, 2020. RESULTS: There were equal proportion of males and females. Thirteen (65%) of the patients were 55years or older with the same percentage (65%) having Type II diabetes and/or hypertension. The most significant pathological feature found at autopsy was diffuse alveolar damage. Seventy per cent (14/20) had associated thromboemboli in the lungs, kidneys and the heart. Forty per cent (6/15) of the patients that had negative results for COVID-19 by the nasopharyngeal swab test before death had positive results during postmortem using bronchopulmonary specimen. At autopsy all patients were identified to have pre-existing medical conditions. CONCLUSION: Diffuse alveolar damage was a key pathological feature of deaths caused by COVID-19 in all cases studied with hypertension and diabetes mellitus being major risk factors. Individuals without co-morbidities were less likely to die or suffer severe disease from SARS-CoV-2. FUNDING: None declared.

Profile and outcomes of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 at a tertiary institution hospital in Ghana.

BACKGROUND: In high-income countries, mortality related to hospitalized patients with the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is approximately 4-5%. However, data on COVID-19 admissions from sub-Saharan Africa are scanty. OBJECTIVE: To describe the clinical profile and determinants of outcomes of patients with confirmed COVID-19 admitted at a hospital in Ghana. METHODS: A prospective study involving 25 patients with real time polymerase chain reaction confirmed COVID-19 admitted to the treatment centre of the University Hospital, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology (KNUST), Kumasi, Ghana from 1st June to 27th July, 2020. They were managed and followed up for outcomes. Data were analysed descriptively, and predictors of mortality assessed using a multivariate logistic regression modelling. RESULTS: The mean age of the patients was 59.3 ± 20.6 years, and 14 (56%) were males. The main symptoms at presentation were breathlessness (68%) followed by fever (56%). The cases were categorized as mild (6), moderate (6), severe (10) and critical (3). Hypertension was the commonest comorbidity present in 72% of patients. Medications used in patient management included dexamethasone (68%), azithromycin (96%), and hydroxychloroquine (4%). Five of 25 cases died (Case fatality ratio 20%). Increasing age and high systolic blood pressure were associated with mortality. CONCLUSION: Case fatality in this sample of hospitalized COVID-19 patients was high. Thorough clinical assessment, severity stratification, aggressive management of underlying co-morbidities and standardized protocols incountry might improve outcomes. FUNDING: None declared.

Long-term effects of weight-reducing diets in people with hypertension.

BACKGROUND: All major guidelines for antihypertensive therapy recommend weight loss. Dietary interventions that aim to reduce body weight might therefore be a useful intervention to reduce blood pressure and adverse cardiovascular events associated with hypertension. OBJECTIVES: Primary objectives To assess the long-term effects of weight-reducing diets in people with hypertension on all-cause mortality, cardiovascular morbidity, and adverse events (including total serious adverse events, withdrawal due to adverse events, and total non-serious adverse events). Secondary objectives To assess the long-term effects of weight-reducing diets in people with hypertension on change from baseline in systolic blood pressure, change from baseline in diastolic blood pressure, and body weight reduction. SEARCH METHODS: For this updated review, the Cochrane Hypertension Information Specialist searched the following databases for randomised controlled trials up to April 2020: the Cochrane Hypertension Specialised Register, CENTRAL (2020, Issue 3), Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, and ClinicalTrials.gov. We also contacted authors of relevant papers about further published and unpublished work. The searches had no language restrictions. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of at least 24 weeks' duration that compared weight-reducing dietary interventions to no dietary intervention in adults with primary hypertension. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently assessed risks of bias and extracted data. Where appropriate and in the absence of significant heterogeneity between studies (P > 0.1), we pooled studies using a fixed-effect meta-analysis. In case of moderate or larger heterogeneity as measured by Higgins I2, we used a random-effects model. MAIN RESULTS: This second review update did not reveal any new trials, so the number of included trials remains the same: eight RCTs involving a total of 2100 participants with high blood pressure and a mean age of 45 to 66 years. Mean treatment duration was 6 to 36 months. We judged the risks of bias as unclear or high for all but two trials. No study included mortality as a predefined outcome. One RCT evaluated the effects of dietary weight loss on a combined endpoint consisting of the necessity of reinstating antihypertensive therapy and severe cardiovascular complications. In this RCT, weight-reducing diet lowered the endpoint compared to no diet: hazard ratio 0.70 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.57 to 0.87). None of the trials evaluated adverse events as designated in our protocol. The certainty of the evidence was low for a blood pressure reduction in participants assigned to weight-loss diets as compared to controls: systolic blood pressure: mean difference (MD) -4.5 mm Hg (95% CI -7.2 to -1.8 mm Hg) (3 studies, 731 participants), and diastolic blood pressure: MD -3.2 mm Hg (95% CI -4.8 to -1.5 mm Hg) (3 studies, 731 participants). We judged the certainty of the evidence to be high for weight reduction in dietary weight loss groups as compared to controls: MD -4.0 kg (95% CI -4.8 to -3.2) (5 trials, 880 participants). Two trials used withdrawal of antihypertensive medication as their primary outcome. Even though we did not consider this a relevant outcome for our review, the results of these RCTs strengthen the finding of a reduction of blood pressure by dietary weight-loss interventions. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: In this second update, the conclusions remain unchanged, as we found no new trials. In people with primary hypertension, weight-loss diets reduced body weight and blood pressure, but the magnitude of the effects are uncertain due to the small number of participants and studies included in the analyses. Whether weight loss reduces mortality and morbidity is unknown. No useful information on adverse effects was reported in the relevant trials.

Effects of renin-angiotensin system blockers on the risk and outcomes of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection in patients with hypertension.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: There are concerns that the use of renin-angiotensin system (RAS) blockers may increase the risk of being infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) or progressing to a severe clinical course after infection. This this study aimed to investigate the influence of RAS blockers on the risk and severity of SARS-CoV-2 infection. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study analyzing nationwide claims data of 215,184 adults who underwent SARS-CoV-2 tests in South Korea. The SARS-CoV-2 positive rates and clinical outcomes were evaluated according to the use of RAS blockers in patients with hypertension (n = 64,243). RESULTS: In total, 38,919 patients with hypertension were on RAS blockers. The SARS-CoV-2 positive rates were significantly higher in the RAS blocker group than in the control group after adjustments (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 1.22; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.10 to 1.36; p < 0.001), and matching by propensity score (adjusted OR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.32; p = 0.017). Among the 1,609 SARS-CoV-2-positive patients with hypertension, the use of RAS blockers was not associated with poor outcomes, such as mortality (adjusted OR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.56 to 1.17; p = 0.265), and a composite of admission to the intensive care unit and mortality (adjusted OR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.73 to 1.22; p = 0.669). Analysis in the propensity scorematched population showed consistent results. CONCLUSION: In this Korean nationwide claims dataset, the use of RAS blockers was associated with a higher risk to SARS-CoV-2 infection but not with higher mortality or other severe clinical courses.

Decreased in-hospital mortality associated with aspirin administration in hospitalized patients due to severe COVID-19.

Hypercoagulability and thrombosis caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are related to the higher mortality rate. Because of limited data on the antiplatelet effect, we aimed to evaluate the impact of aspirin add-on therapy on the outcome of the patients hospitalized due to severe COVID-19. In this cohort study, patients with a confirmed diagnosis of severe COVID-19 admitted to Imam Hossein Medical Center, Tehran, Iran from March 2019 to July 2020 were included. Demographics and related clinical data during their hospitalization were recorded. The mortality rate of the patients was considered as the primary outcome and its association with aspirin use was assessed. Nine hundred and ninety-one patients were included, of that 336 patients (34%) received aspirin during their hospitalization and 655 ones (66%) did not. Comorbidities were more prevalent in the patients who were receiving aspirin. Results from the multivariate COX proportional model demonstrated a significant independent association between aspirin use and reduction in the risk of in-hospital mortality (0.746 [0.560-0.994], p = 0.046). Aspirin use in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 is associated with a significant decrease in mortality rate. Further prospective randomized controlled trials are needed to assess the efficacy and adverse effects of aspirin administration in this population.

Association between blood pressure categories and cardiovascular disease mortality in China.

BACKGROUND: Blood pressure (BP) categories are useful to simplify preventions in public health, and diagnostic and treatment approaches in clinical practice. Updated evidence about the associations of BP categories with cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and its subtypes is warranted. METHODS AND FINDINGS: About 0.5 million adults aged 30 to 79 years were recruited from 10 areas in China during 2004-2008. The present study included 430 977 participants without antihypertension treatment, cancer, or CVD at baseline. BP was measured at least twice in a single visit at baseline and CVD deaths during follow-up were collected via registries and the national health insurance databases. Multivariable Cox regression was used to estimate the associations between BP categories and CVD mortality. Overall, 16.3% had prehypertension-low, 25.1% had prehypertension-high, 14.1% had isolated systolic hypertension (ISH), 1.9% had isolated diastolic hypertension (IDH), and 9.1% had systolic-diastolic hypertension (SDH). During a median 10-year follow-up, 9660 CVD deaths were documented. Compared with normal, the hazard ratios (95% CI) of prehypertension-low, prehypertension-high, ISH, IDH, SDH for CVD were 1.10 (1.01-1.19), 1.32 (1.23-1.42), 2.04 (1.91-2.19), 2.20 (1.85-2.61), and 3.81 (3.54-4.09), respectively. All hypertension subtypes were related to the increased risk of CVD subtypes, with a stronger association for hemorrhagic stroke than for ischemic heart disease. The associations were stronger in younger than older adults. CONCLUSIONS: Prehypertension-high should be considered in CVD primary prevention given its high prevalence and increased CVD risk. All hypertension subtypes were independently associated with CVD and its subtypes mortality, though the strength of associations varied substantially.

Morbidity and mortality outcomes of COVID-19 patients with and without hypertension in Lagos, Nigeria: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The current pandemic of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has shown epidemiological and clinical characteristics that appear worsened in hypertensive patients. The morbidity and mortality of the disease among hypertensive patients in Africa have yet to be well described. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study all confirmed COVID-19 adult patients (≥18 years of age) in Lagos between February 27 to July 62,020 were included. Demographic, clinical and outcome data were extracted from electronic medical records of patients admitted at the COVID-19 isolation centers in Lagos. Outcomes included dying, being discharged after recovery or being evacuated/transferred. Descriptive statistics considered proportions, means and medians. The Chi-square and Fisher's exact tests were used in determining associations between variables. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox regression were performed to quantify the risk of worse outcomes among hypertensives with COVID-19 and adjust for confounders. P-value ≤0.05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: A total of 2075 adults with COVID-19 were included in this study. The prevalence of hypertension, the most common comorbidity, was 17.8% followed by diabetes (7.2%) and asthma (2.0%). Overall mortality was 4.2% while mortality among the hypertensives was 13.7%. Severe symptoms and mortality were significantly higher among the hypertensives and survival rates were significantly lowered by the presence of additional comorbidity to 50% from 91% for those with hypertension alone and from 98% for all other patients (P < 0.001). After adjustment for confounders (age and sex), severe COVID-19and death were higher for hypertensives {severe/critical illness: HR = 2.41, P = 0.001, 95%CI = 1.4-4.0, death: HR = 2.30, P = 0.001, 95%CI = 1.2-4.6, for those with hypertension only} {severe/critical illness: HR = 3.76, P = 0.001, 95%CI = 2.1-6.4, death: crude HR = 6.63, P = 0.001, 95%CI = 3.4-1.6, for those with additional comorbidities}. Hypertension posed an increased risk of severe morbidity (approx. 4-fold) and death (approx. 7-fold) from COVID-19 in the presence of multiple comorbidities. CONCLUSION: The potential morbidity and mortality risks of hypertension especially with other comorbidities in COVID-19 could help direct efforts towards prevention and prognostication. This provides the rationale for improving preventive caution for people with hypertension and other comorbidities and prioritizing them for future antiviral interventions.

Role of Hypertension on the Severity of COVID-19: A Review.

ABSTRACT: The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has rapidly evolved into a global pandemic. The substantial morbidity and mortality associated with the infection has prompted us to understand potential risk factors that can predict patient outcomes. Hypertension has been identified as the most prevalent cardiovascular comorbidity in patients infected with COVID-19 that demonstrably increases the risk of hospitalization and death. Initial studies implied that renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitors might increase the risk of viral infection and aggravate disease severity, thereby causing panic given the high global prevalence of hypertension. Nonetheless, subsequent evidence supported the administration of antihypertensive drugs and noted that they do not increase the severity of COVID-19 infection in patients with hypertension, rather may have a beneficial effect. To date, the precise mechanism by which hypertension predisposes to unfavorable outcomes in patients infected with COVID-19 remains unknown. In this mini review, we elaborate on the pathology of SARS-CoV-2 infection coexisting with hypertension and summarize potential mechanisms, focusing on the dual roles of angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 and the disorders of renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system in COVID-19 and hypertension. The effects of proinflammatory factors released because of immune response and gastrointestinal dysfunction in COVID-19 are also discussed.

Association of calcium channel blocker use with clinical outcome of COVID-19: A meta-analysis.

AIMS: This meta-analysis aims to analyze the association of calcium channel blocker (CCB) use with COVID-19 clinical outcomes. METHODS: PubMed, ProQuest, Science Direct, Scopus, and medRxiv databases were searched systematically in a limited period. The primary outcome was mortality. RESULTS: A total of 119,298 patients from 31 eligible studies were included. Pooled analysis of the random-effect model revealed CCB was not associated with reduced mortality (OR = 1.21 [95%CI: 0.98-1.49], p = 0.08). Interestingly, subgroup analysis in hypertensive patients revealed significantly reduced mortality (OR = 0.69 [95%CI: 0.52-0.91], p = 0.009). CONCLUSION: CCB usage was not associated with the outcome of COVID-19. However, CCB was associated with a decreased mortality rate in hypertensive COVID-19 patients.

Cardiac pathology in COVID-19: a single center autopsy experience.

BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is commonly associated with myocardial injury and heart failure. The pathophysiology behind this phenomenon remains unclear, with many diverse and multifaceted hypotheses. To contribute to this understanding, we describe the underlying cardiac findings in fifty patients who died with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). METHODS: Included were autopsies performed on patients with a positive SARS-CoV-2 reverse-transcriptase-polymerase-chain reaction test from the index hospitalization. In the case of out-of-hospital death, patients were included if post-mortem testing was positive. Complete autopsies were performed according to a COVID-19 safety protocol, and all patients underwent both macroscopic and microscopic examination. If available, laboratory findings and echocardiograms were reported. RESULTS: The median age of the decedents was 63.5 years. The most common comorbidities included hypertension (90.0%), diabetes (56.0%) and obesity (50.0%). Lymphocytic inflammatory infiltrates in the heart were present in eight (16.0%) patients, with focal myocarditis present in two (4.0%) patients. Acute myocardial ischemia was observed in eight (16.0%) patients. The most common findings were myocardial fibrosis (80.0%), hypertrophy (72.0%), and microthrombi (66.0%). The most common causes of death were COVID-19 pneumonia in 18 (36.0%), COVID-19 pneumonia with bacterial superinfection in 12 (24.0%), and COVID-19 pneumonia with pulmonary embolism in 10 (20.0%) patients. CONCLUSIONS: Cardiovascular comorbidities were prevalent, and pathologic changes associated with hypertensive and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease were the most common findings. Despite markedly elevated inflammatory markers and cardiac enzymes, few patients exhibited inflammatory infiltrates or necrosis within cardiac myocytes. A unifying pathophysiologic mechanism behind myocardial injury in COVID-19 remains elusive, and additional autopsy studies are needed.

Prevalence and impact of comorbidities on disease prognosis among patients with COVID-19 in Bangladesh: A nationwide study amid the second wave.

BACKGROUND: Socio-demographics and comorbidities are involved in determining the severity and fatality in patients with COVID-19 suggested by studies in various countries, but study in Bangladesh is insufficient. AIMS: We designed the study to evaluate the association of sociodemographic and comorbidities with the prognosis of adverse health outcomes in patients with COVID-19 in Bangladesh. METHODS: A multivariate retrospective cohort study was conducted on data from 966 RT-PCR positive patients from eight divisions during December 13, 2020, to February 13, 2021. Variables included sociodemographic, comorbidities, symptoms, Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) and access to health facilities. Major outcome was fatality. Secondary outcomes included hospitalization, duration of hospital stay, requirement of mechanical ventilation and severity. RESULTS: Male (65.8%, 636 of 966) was predominant and mean age was 39.8 ± 12.6 years. Fever (79%), dry cough (55%), and loss of test/smell (51%) were frequent and 74% patients had >3 symptoms. Fatality was recorded in 10.5% patients. Comorbidities were found in 44% patients. Hypertension (21.5%) diabetes (14.6%), and cardiovascular diseases (11.3%) were most prevalent. Age >60 years (OR: 4.83, 95% CI: 2.45-6.49), and CCI >3 (OR: 5.48, 95% CI: 3.95-7.24) were predictors of hospitalizations. CCI >4 (aOR: 3.41, 95% CI: 2.57-6.09) was predictor of severity. Age >60 years (aOR: 3.77, 95% CI: 1.07-6.34), >3 symptoms (aOR: 2.14, 95% CI: 0.97-4.91) and CCI >3 vs. CCI <3 (aOR: 5.23, 95% CI: 3.77-8.09) were independently associated with fatality. CONCLUSIONS: Increased age, >3 symptoms, increasing comorbidities, higher CCI were associated with increased hospitalization, severity and fatality in patients with COVID-19.

Association of Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitors and Angiotensin Receptor Blockers With the Risk of Hospitalization and Death in Hypertensive Patients With COVID-19.

Background Despite its clinical significance, the risk of severe infection requiring hospitalization among outpatients with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection who receive angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) remains uncertain. Methods and Results In a propensity score-matched outpatient cohort (January-May 2020) of 2263 Medicare Advantage and commercially insured individuals with hypertension and a positive outpatient SARS-CoV-2, we determined the association of ACE inhibitors and ARBs with COVID-19 hospitalization. In a concurrent inpatient cohort of 7933 hospitalized with COVID-19, we tested their association with in-hospital mortality. The robustness of the observations was assessed in a contemporary cohort (May-August). In the outpatient study, neither ACE inhibitors (hazard ratio [HR], 0.77; 0.53-1.13, P=0.18) nor ARBs (HR, 0.88; 0.61-1.26, P=0.48) were associated with hospitalization risk. ACE inhibitors were associated with lower hospitalization risk in the older Medicare group (HR, 0.61; 0.41-0.93, P=0.02), but not the younger commercially insured group (HR, 2.14; 0.82-5.60, P=0.12; P-interaction 0.09). Neither ACE inhibitors nor ARBs were associated with lower hospitalization risk in either population in the validation cohort. In the primary inpatient study cohort, neither ACE inhibitors (HR, 0.97; 0.81-1.16; P=0.74) nor ARBs (HR, 1.15; 0.95-1.38, P=0.15) were associated with in-hospital mortality. These observations were consistent in the validation cohort. Conclusions ACE inhibitors and ARBs were not associated with COVID-19 hospitalization or mortality. Despite early evidence for a potential association between ACE inhibitors and severe COVID-19 prevention in older individuals, the inconsistency of this observation in recent data argues against a role for prophylaxis.